BIBLIOGRAPHIE DU FUTUR

• Sur la réflexion prospective, on pourra s'initier avec:

  • - les ouvrages de Michel Godet, par exemple "l'Avenir autrement"( Armand Colin 1991) et "De l'anticipation à l'action: manuel de prospective et de stratégie"( Dunod 1991).

  • Un best-seller d'un praticien de la SHELL: "The Art of the Long view" par Peter Schwartz, Président de Global Business Network DoubleDay 1996

  • - les revues "Futuribles"( Paris), "Futures" ( Londres).

  • -les best-sellers prospectifs de John Naisbitt, Faith Popcorn, Richard Carlson etc...

  • "OCTAVE: Bibliographie des études prospectives en Europe Occidentale (1993-1995)" Futuribles International , Paris, 275p.,1997)

  • Encyclopedia of World problems and potential Saur Verlag, Munich, 1991
  • FUTURESCO future database of UNESCO
  • Future Studies - Highly Recommended Books Page Future Studies, futurist, futurology
  • Future Studies 1999 catalog; Greenwood Publishing Grouphttp://www.greenwood.com/futurestud/
  • "60 KEY WORKS - A BEGINNER'S GUIDE TO THE FUTURES LITERATURE", de Kjell Dahle
  • Adamantine Press : various books
  • BURROWS MAYNE NEWBURY: Into the 21 th Century: a handbook for the sustainable future Adamantine Press 1991

  • Future Studies - Highly Recommended Books PageFuture Studies, futurist, futurology

  • Future Studies 1999 catalog; Greenwood Publishing Grouphttp://www.greenwood.com/futurestud/

  • "60 KEY WORKS - A BEGINNER'S GUIDE TO THE FUTURES LITERATURE", de Kjell Dahle

  • FutureStudies A leading publisher

  • Studytoc The World Future Society is updating its classic text, The Study of the Future.
  • Bibliographie prospective

• Voir dans le répertoire : Le FUTUR DANS GEOSCOPIE: les analyses d'ouvrages de

  F.Hatem,Prospective-pratiques et méthodes

  Ruth Sheps: Sciences de la prévision

UNESCO: Les clés du XXI° siècle

• Le progrès
• ATTITUDES PROSPECTIVES
  Eléments d'une histoire de la prospective en France après 1945
  Stéphane Cordobes, Philippe Durance
  Prospective - Essais et Recherches
  POLITIQUE
  
  Qu'est-ce que la prospective ? A quels problèmes répond-elle ? Quels sont les difficultés liées à sa pratique ? Autant de questions auxquelles répondent ici quelques grands témoins : Serge Antoine, Jean-Paul Bailly, Armand Braun, Michel Crozier, Michel Godet, Pierre Gonod, Jean-Paul Guillot, Edith Heurgon, Hugues de Jouvenel, Josée Landrieu, Jacques Lesourne, Jérôme Monod et Pierre Piganiol.
  
  ISBN : 978-2-296-04583-5 • décembre 2007 • 284 pages
  version numérique (pdf texte) : 3 217 Ko

• HISTOIRE:

  • Histoire du futur
    • Herman KAHN "The Year 2000" , New-York, 1968.
    • George ORWELL"1984" , London, 1949.
    • The World in 2030 A.D. By the Earl of Birkenhead, London, 1930.
    • Ivan H. BLOCH:"The Future of War" , Boston, 1903.
    • Minois G. "Histoire de l'avenir: des Prophètes à la prospective" Fayard 1996
    • Halte à la croissance ? Rapport du Club de Rome, Paris, 1972.
    • Mattelart: Histoire des utopies planétaires La Découverte
    • Guy Thuillier "L'histoire en 2050" Comité pour l'histoire économique et financière de la France
    • P.Durance et S.Cordobes "Attitudes prospectives: Eléments d'une histoire de la prospective en France après 1945" L'Harmattan 2007 (Lesourne, Crozier , bailly, Heurgon) Livre bien documenté

• ACTUALITE

  • Les synthèses du temps présent: (peuvent faciliter la prospective)

    • En France, plusieurs publications annuelles de qualité: RAMSES, l'Année Internationale, l'Etat du monde; et des revues ou hebdomadaires comme "le Monde diplomatique", "Projet", " Courrier International", "Politique Etrangère", "Problèmes économiques" etc...

    • A l'étranger, les revues et synthèses de "The Economist", Financial Times, Business Week.

    • Enfin et surtout l'énorme documentation de la Banque Mondiale et du Fonds Monétaire International, de l'OCDE, de la Communauté Européenne.

• GEOGRAPHIE
• TOUS PAYS:
  • Pelt JM: "La Terre en héritage" Fayard 2000
• PAYS BAS
  • Dutch Central Planning Bureau. Scanning the Future. The Hague SDU Publishers, 1992.
• RUSSIE
  • Yergin, Daniel, and Thane Gustafson. Russia 2010 and What It Means for the World. New York: Random House, 1993. Armstrong, Neil,
• AFRIQUE
  • Esterhuyse, Willie. "Scenarios for South Africa-Instability and Violence or Negotiated Transition?" Long Range Planning 25, (1992): 21-26.
  • Kahane, Adam."The Mont Fleur Scenarios." WeeklyMail and The Guardian Weekly (Bellville, South Africa), 1992.

• TOURISME

• INSTITUTIONS

• DROIT

  • Salas D. "Le Tiers pouvoir: vers une autre justice" Hachette 2000

• POLITIQUE

  • Le risque politique
    • Bonnett, Thomas W., and Robert L. Olson. Scenarios of State Govemment in the Year 2010. Washington, D.C.: Council of Governors'Policy Advisors, 1993.
    • Coplin, William D., and Michael O'Leary. "1992-97 World Political Risk Forecast. " Planning Review 20, no. 2 (1992): 24-3 1.
    • Rosell, Steven A., et al. Changing Maps: Governing in a World of Rapid Change. The Second Report of the Project in an Information Society. Ottawa: Carleton University Press, 1995
    • Alain Touraine, Qu'est-ce que la démocratie ?, LGF, 1997.
    • Etchegoyen A. "Le temps des responsables" Pocket 1997

• GENERAL

  • Droits de l'Homme
• ORGANISATION
  • De la confédération à la fédération - réflexion sur la finalité de l'intégration européenne. Discours de Joschka FISCHER à l'Université Humboldt, le 12 mai 2000", (extraits reproduits dans "Le Monde ", 14-15 mai 2000).
  • Après l'État-nation - une nouvelle constellation. Jürgen HABERMAS, Paris, 2000.
  • The World in 2020: Towards a New Golden Age. Hamish Mc RAE, OECD, 1997.
  • Anticipation the Future - Twenty Millennia of Human Progress. Barry BUZAN and Gerald SEGAL, London, 1997.
  • Schwartz, Peter. "The New World Disorder. " Wired: Scenarios Special Edition, October 1995. 164-65,173-7
  • Sunter, Clem. The New Century, Quest for the High Boad. Cape Town: Ituman & Rousseau Tafelberg, 1992. 65,131
  • J.Hugues International Futures
  • Les enjeux du XXIe siècle 2000 Eric Hobsbawm (entretien avec Antonio Polito) Editions Complexe, Collection "Questions à l'histoire", mars 2000 Bruxelles les grandes tendances du prochain siècle à partir de la connaissance du passé
  • La guerre au XXIe siècle Laurent Murawiec 1999
  • RAND CORPORATION: les bests sellers

• SECURITE-DEFENSE

  • Boroush, Mark A., and Charles W. Thomas. "Alternative Scenarios for the Defense Industry after 1995. " Planning Review 20, no. 3 (1992): 24-29.
  • Cohen, Elliott A., and John Gooch. Militariy Misfortunes. New York: Free Press, 1990.
  • Martin van Creveld, La transformation de la guerre. 1998 ("On Future War", 1991)
  • Boroush, Mark A., and Charles W. Thomas. "Alternative Scenarios for the

• EUROPE

• AMERIQUE

• Peter Heller "Who will pay?Coping with aging societies, climate changes and other long term fiscal challenges " International Monetary Fund Nov.2003 248 pages

• ENERGIE
  • Benjamin Dessus, Énergie. Un défi planétaire, Paris, Belin, 1999;
  • - Énergie 2010-2020, Rapport final de l'Atelier « Les défis du long terme », Commissariat général au Plan, 1997.
  • Scenarios for Energy: Sustainable World vs. Global Mercantilism." Long Range Planning 25, no. 4 (1992): 38-46.
  • Kleiner, Art. "The End of the Official Future: Why Pacifîc Gas and Electric Isn't Building Any More Nuclear Power Plants." Garbage, March/April 1992
  • Schipper, Lee, and Stephen Meyers. "Using Scenarios to Explore Future Energy Demand in Industrialized Countries." Energy Policy 21, no. 3 (March 1993): 264-275.
  • Stokke, P. R., W. K. Ralston, T. A. Boyce, and I. H. Wilson. "Scenario Planning for Norwegian Oil and Gas." Long Range Planning 23, no. 2 (1990): 17-26.
• ALIMENTATION
  • Benkimoun P. "La peur aux ventres: démocratie et sécurité alimentaire" Textuel 2000
• BIOLOGIE
  • Rifkin J. "Le siècle biotech: le commerce des gènes dans le meilleur des mondes" Pocket 2000
  • M.Serres: "Hominescence" Le Pommier 2001 (avènement du génie génétique)
  • Kupiec JJ et Sonigo P. "Ni Dieu, ni gène: pour une autre théorie de l'hérédité"

• EDUCATION
  • Ogilvy, James. "Education and Community: Four Scenarios for the Future of Public Education." The Deeper News (Emeryville, Calif.: Global Business Network) 6, no. 1 (1995).
  • Three Scenarios for Higher Education." The Deeper News (Emeryville, Calif.: Global Business Network) 3, no. 1 (1992);
  • Mason, David H., and James Herman. "Mapping the Future of Computing and Communications." UniForum Daily, january 23, 1992

• MODES DE VIE

·Sue R. "Vivre en l'an 2000" Albin Michel 1985

SAVOIRS

• Concepts
  • Barnett, Steve. "Futures, Probable and Plausible." Anthropology Newsletter, October 1994.
  • Churchman, C. West. The Design of Inquiring Systems. New York:Basic Books, 1971. (1992):
  • de Geus, Arie. "Planning as Learning." Harvard Business Review 66, no. 2 (1988): 70-74.
  • Douglas, Mary. How Institutions Think. Syracuse, N.Y.: Syracuse University Press, 1986.
  • Forrester, Jay Wright. Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1961.
  • Galer, Graham, and Kees van der Heijden. "How Planners Create 10-17, Organisational Learning." Marketing Intelligence and Planning Wilkinson,10, no. 6 (1992): 5-12.
  • Griffin, Emilie, ed. "Decisionmaking" [interview with Napier Collyns]. In The Reflective Executive, 117-124. New York: Crossroads,1993.
  • Ingvar, David H. "Memories of the Future: An Essay on the Temporal Organisation of Conscious Awareness." Human Neurobiology 4, no. 3 (1985): 12 7-136.
  • Jungermann, Helmut, and M. Thuring. "The Use of Mental Models for Generating Scenarios." In Judgment Forecasting, edited by George Wright and Peter Ayton. Chichester: Wiley, 1987.
  • Kolb, David A. Experiential Learning: Experience as the Source of Leaming and Development. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1984.
  • Michael, Don. On Learning to Plan and Planning to Leam. New York: Jossey-Bass, 1973.
  • Mintzberg, Henry. "That's Not Turbulence, Chicken Little, That's Really Opportunity." Planning Review 22, no. 6 (1994): 7-9.
  • van der Heijden, Kees. "Probablistic Planning and Scenario Planning." In Subjective Probability, edited by George Wright and Peter Ayton. Chichester and New York: Wiley, 1994. no. 3 (19
  • Vickers, Geoffrey, Sir. Human Systems Are Different. London and New York: Harper & Row, 1983.
• Methodologie et Pratique
  • Leemhuis, J. P. "Using Scenarios to Develop Strategies." Long Range Planning 18, no. 2 (1985): 30-37.
  • Mason, David H. "Scenario-based Planning: Decision Model for the Learning Organization." Planning Review 22, no. 2 (1994): 6-11.
  • Ogilvy, James. "Future Studies and the Human Sciences: The Case for Normative Scenarios. " Futures Research Quarterly 8, no. 2
  • Schoemaker, Paul, and Kees van der Heijden. "Integrating Scenarios into Strategic Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell." Planning Review 20, no. 3 (1992): 41-46.
  • Schwartz, Peter. "Composing a Plot for Your Scenario." Planning Review 20, no. 3 (1992) 4-8, 46.
  • Simpson, Daniel G. "Key Lessons for Adopting Scenario Planning in Diversified Companies." Planning Review 20, no. 3 (1992):
  • Wilkinson, Lawrence. "How to Build Scenarios: Planning for'Long Fuse, Big Bang' Problems in an Era of Uncertainty." Wired:Scenarios Special Edition, October 1995.
  • Wack, Pierre "Scenarios: The Gentle Art of Reperceiving." Harvard Business School working paper. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard College, 1984.
  • Wack, Pierre " Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids." Harvard Business Review Apple Computer 63, no. 6 (1985): 139-150.
  • Wack, Pierre "Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead." Harvard Business Review 63, no. 5 (1985): 72-79.
• Sciences et techniques:

Lecourt D. "L'avenir du progrés" Textuel 1997

• HYPOTHESES
  • UNESCO: Les clés du XXI° siècle
• TENDANCES-SCENARIOS

  • Gaudin T. "2100: récit du prochain siècle" Payot 1990

  • ·Gros F. "Prospectives 2005: explorations de l'avenir" Economica 1987

  • Robert Legros: "L'idée d'humanité"Grasset 1990

    D.Janicaud: "L'homme va-t-il dépasser l'humain?" Bayard 2002

    Marcel Gauchet "Le desenchantement du monde" Gallimard 1985

  • Bibliographie de la Mondialisation

    Bibliography of Globalisation

• RISQUES
  • Principe de précaution
  • Bourg D. et Schlegel JL: "Parer aux risques de demain: le pricipe de précaution" Seuil 2001, gestion des avancées technologiques, développement durable
  • Kourisky et Vinel : "Le principe de précaution" O.Jacob 2000
  • Lepage C. et Guéry F. "La politique de précaution" PUF 2001
  • Farouki N. "Les progrès de la peur" Le Pommier 2001
  • D.Lecourt: "L'avenir du progrès" Textuel 1997

Cliquez sur les titres pour d'autres informations et commander les ouvrages

TECHNIQUES DE PREVISION, METHODES PROSPECTIVES

• Encyclopedia of the Future by George Thomas Kurian (Editor), Graham T. Molitor Hardcover Published by MacMillan Library Reference : December 1995 Encyclopédie alphabétique des 25 prochaines années des thèmes (politiques, économiques, sociaux, culturels) et techniques de prévision; perspectives pour divers pays, surtout anglosaxons.. 450 articles et 500.000mots, 42 articles synoptiques. Contribution de "futurologues" célèbres mais aussi de Prix Nobel ou d'hommes d'état. Certains articles en forme de "prédictions", d'autres du type "si..alors…".Excellente introduction par Daniel BELL. En annexes, une chronologie des idées futuristes, une liste des organismes travaillant sur le futur et des gourous du futurisme, une importante bibliographie.Index facilitant l'étude des interactions entre thèmes.

Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts - Robert S. Pindyck, Daniel L. Rubinfeld; Hardcover

Introduction to Time-Series Modeling and Forecasting in Business and Economics - Patricia E. Gaynor, Rickey C. Kirkpatrick; Hardcover

Leading Economic Indicators : New Approaches and Forecasting Records - Kajal Lahiri, Geoffrey H. Moore (Editor); Paperback

Trading the Yield Curve : How Changes in the Price of Money Predict Movements in the World's Financial and Commodity Markets Martha Eden / Hardcover / Published 1998

Bibliography on Forecasting and Planning Kwok Keung Kwong, et al / Paperback / Published 1994

Business and Economic Forecasting : Decision Support System Software/Book With Disk Leroy F. Simmons, George Wright / Paperback / Published 1990

Business Cycle Indicators Karl Heinrich Oppenlander (Editor) / Hardcover / Published 1997

Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting Philip Hans Franses / Hardcover / Published 1998

Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Structural Change P. Hackl (Editor) / Hardcover / Published 1991

PREVISION, PROSPECTIVE GENERALES

• Global Trends : the World Almanac of Development and Peace by Ingomar Hauchler, Paul M. Kennedy (Editor)ngomar Hauchler, Paul M. Kennedy (Editor)

  Hardcover, 416 pages Published by Continuum Pub Group December 1994Hardcover, 416 pages Published by Continuum Pub Group December 1994

Par l'auteur de "The Rise and fall of Empires " et "Preparing for the Twenty-Firts Century"

• The Great Reckoning : How the World Will Change in the Depression of the 1990's James D. Davidson, Rees-Mogg; Pan Books 602 pages

Une analyse "mégapolitique "(selon les auteurs) et pessimiste de l'avenir. Deflation et depression en vue. Effondrement de l'Etat Providence . Effet domino de l'effondrement de la Grande Bretagne, des USA, du Japon, de l'Europe. Fin des subventions du monde au dollar.

La violence comme agent et conséquence du changement . Drogue, crime, la culture des taudis, impuissance des états.

Comment l'économie privée et les individus peuvent survivre en dehors des grandes villes: protection, zones d'opportunité, rachat de propriétés dépréciées.

The 500-Year Delta : What Happens After What Comes Next James Taylor, et al / Hardcover / Published 1997 An Agenda for the Twenty-First Century Rushworth M. Kidder / Hardcover / Published 1988

• Beyond Humanity : Cyberevolution and Future Minds Gregory S. Paul, et al / Paperback / Published 1996

• The Great Spike and Beyond : Reflections on the 21st Century Walt W. Rostow, W. W. Rostow / Hardcover / Published 1998

• Beyond Sovereignty : Territory and Political Economy in the Twenty-First Century David J. Elkins / Paperback / Published 1995

• Education for the Twenty-First Century (Educational Managemnet Series)

Hedley Beare, Richard Slaughter / Paperback / Published 1994

• The Foresight Principle : Cultural Recovery in the 21st Century (Adamantine Studies on the 21st Century, No 15)

Richard A. Slaughter / Paperback / Published 1995

• Futures Education (World Yearbook of Education 1998)

David Hicks (Editor), Richard Slaughter (Editor) / Hardcover / Published 1998

• New Thinking for a New Millennium (Futures and Education Series)

Richard A. Slaughter (Editor) / Paperback / Published 1996

ECOLOGIE

• Beyond the Limits : Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future Donella H. Meadows, et al / Paperback / Published 1993

• Climate-Our Future? Ulrich Schotterer, et al / Hardcover / Published 1992

• Contesting Earth's Future : Radical Ecology and Postmodernity Michael E. Zimmerman / Paperback / Published 1997

• Agricultural Research Alternatives (Our Sustainable Future, Vol 3) William Lockeretz, Molly D. Anderson / Hardcover / Published 1993

• Betrayal of Science and Reason : How Anti-Environment Rhetoric Threatens Our Future ~ Paul R. Ehrlich, Anne H. Ehrlich / Paperback / Published 1998

  ---

  PROSPECTIVE DE L' AMERIQUE (voir aussi AMERIQUE CHEZ AMAZON)

• American Democracy in Peril : Seven Challenges to America's Future (Chatham House Studies in Political Thinking) William E. Hudson / Paperback / Published 1996

• American Renaissance : Our Life at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century Marvin Cetron, Owen Davies / Paperback / Published 1990

• State of the Union : America in the 1990s : Social Trends (The 1990 Census Research) Vol 2 Reynolds Farley (Editor) / Hardcover / Published 1995

• Tracking America's Economy Norman Frumkin / Paperback / Published 1998

• The Age of Diminished Expectations : U.S. Economic Policy in the 1990s Paul R. Krugman, Paul Krugman / Hardcover / Published 1997

• America Beyond 2001 : Opposing Viewpoints (Opposing Viewpoints Series) O. W. Markley (Editor), Walter R. McCuan (Editor) / Paperback / Published 1995

• Statistical Forecasts of the United States Sean R. Pollock (Editor) / Hardcover / Published 1995

PROSPECTIVEPAYS

• The Asian Pacific : Political and Economic Development in a Global Context Vera Simone, Anne Thompson Feraru / Paperback / Published 1994

• Big Dragon : The Future of China: What it Means for Business, the Economy, and the Global Order Daniel Burstein, Arne De Keijzer / Hardcover / Published 1998

• Greater China : Political Economy, Inward Investment and Business Culture Chris Rowley (Editor), Mark Lewis (Editor) / Hardcover / Published 1996

• China's Economic Future : Challenges to U.S. Policy (Studies on Contemporary China) Congress of the United States Joint Economic Committee, Joint economi / Paperback / Published 1997

• The Growth of China and Prospects for the Eastern Regions of the Former USSR Alexander Nemets / Hardcover / Published 1996

• Blindside : Why Japan Is Still on Track to Overtake the U.S. by the Year 2000 Eamonn Fingleton / Hardcover / Published 1995

• The Asian Miracle, Myth and Mirage : The Coming Economic Slowdown Bernard Arogyaswamy / Hardcover / Published 1998

  ---

• STRATEGIES POUR LE FUTUR

• Trends 2000 : How to Prepare for and Profit from the Changes of the 21st Century by Gerald Celente Hardcover, Published by Warner Books Publication date: January 1998 Fondateur du Trends Research Institute (ou Socio-Economic Research Institute) , G.Celente procède à la manière de John Naisbitt en repérant dans la presse des tendances de changement. Il relève bien entendu les facteurs économiques et techniques mais aussi les tendances de la santé, de l'environnement, de la culture ou de la politique

• Boom : Visions and Insights for Creating Wealth in the 21st Century Frank Vogl, James Sinclair / Hardcover / Published 1995

• Bold New World : The Essential Guide to Surviving and Prospering in the Twenty-First Century William Knoke, Bill Knoke / Hardcover / Published 1996

• Surviving the Contained Depression of the 1990s S. Jay Levy, et al / Hardcover / Published 1998

• Future in Sight : 100 Trends, Implications & Predictions That Will Most Impact Businesses and the World Economy into the 21st Century; ; Barry Howard Minkin
• Clicking : 17 Trends That Drive Your Business -- And Your Life; Faith Popcorn, Lys Marigold